OutlierBaselineFootball intelligence lab

Fantasy / Player valuation

Player Value Lab

Compare remaining production and a three-year outlook. Current-season scoring, prior seasons, and verified availability inform an explainable player-value index.

Player Value Lab · Experimental

Your reference format

Format & valuation horizon

Fixed 12-team reference. No account or draft changes.

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The comparison

Rest-of-season values

Preparing the board…

Select a player, then open their notebook below ↓. Scroll inside the table to compare every column.

Player value comparison, fixed 12-team reference
RankPlayerPos.Value indexProj. PPGROS pointsGames leftAvailability

A dash means unavailable, not zero. Values are relative to this model, format, and horizon; changing the comparison group can move the index.

Player notebook

Choose a player

How the values work · sources & limitations

Rate, opportunity, then replacement

Current-season observations update a prior-season scoring baseline. The model estimates remaining production from the actual remaining schedule, then compares it with a replacement player at the same position. This fixed 12-team reference uses QB13 in 1QB or QB25 in 2QB, RB25, WR37, and TE13.

Two different horizons

Rest of season covers remaining regular-season fixtures. The three-year dynasty view includes that remainder plus two future 17-game seasons, discounted by 0.85 and 0.85². Experimental position-and-age adjustments are not a career-survival or retirement model. Injuries do not become invented long-term recovery forecasts.

Availability is time-sensitive

Only current, schedule-matched injury information can affect the model. Historical, future, Questionable, Probable, or missing reports must not be mistaken for confirmed missed games. “Unknown” does not mean healthy. Missing news is shown explicitly and is not replaced with a made-up diagnosis.

What the charts actually record

Weekly points come from saved game statistics. Dated index history begins when this model first saves a capture; it is not a reconstructed KTC chart. Only matching model, season, and format captures are shown, up to the latest 30 available dates. A single capture is one point, not a fabricated trend.

Current-game scoring and legacy historical scoring may have different coverage; player notes identify limitations. The model is experimental and has not been validated as a trade-pricing or prediction system. A higher index is not a guarantee and scores should not be added to price a multi-player trade.

Source: nflverse saved player and game data ↗ · Explore the underlying age curves